The rise and fall of peak TV

The rise of Peak TV can be traced back to 2013, when Netflix revolutionised the industry by launching its original content slate, starting with House of Cards.

This bold move sparked a seismic shift in the Entertainment landscape, pulling focus away from the unscripted reality TV boom of the 2000s and setting a new standard for high-quality, scripted television. The immense success of Orange Is the New Black and Stranger Things further solidified Netflix’s position as a major player, prompting a wave of competition.

Over the next decade, other streaming giants like Disney, Amazon, and Apple joined the race, investing billions in original series like The Mandalorian and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, driving an insatiable demand for fresh, scripted content. As reported by Variety VIP, the number of original scripted shows on subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services skyrocketed from 28 in 2013 to a staggering 598 at its peak in 2022, before dipping to 491 in 2023. This rapid content expansion inevitably outpaced the growth in viewership and subscriber numbers, leaving many productions—despite critical acclaim—unable to generate the returns that studios had anticipated.

A major turning point came in 2022 when Netflix spooked Wall Street by reporting its first-ever quarterly loss in subscriptions, after nearly a decade of seemingly unstoppable growth. External factors, like the 2023 Writers Guild of America strike, added to the pressure, but this marked the beginning of the end for Peak TV. Streamers, once hyper-focused on user numbers, began reevaluating their strategies, placing a renewed emphasis on profitability over sheer volume

The streaming market’s belt-tightening will likely lead to a reduction in risk-taking, with platforms focusing on established fanbases rather than trying to cultivate new ones.

Think the success of IP such as The Last of Us or Fallout who have their roots in gaming but have become hugely popular streaming series. The flip of this is that projects once considered risky or unconventional—like Schitt’s Creek, The Bear, or Baby Reindeer — may struggle to get made in this more conservative landscape, which favors formulaic unscripted franchise content such as Love is Blind and Selling Sunset (both of which are cheaper to produce). Additionally, innovation through TV pilots, which were already rare in the SVOD space, is expected to diminish. This trend is mirrored by the overall decline in new series, with 2023 seeing a 21% drop in premieres, aligning with the overall decrease in output.

Instead, Chet Fenster, Chief Content Officer at GroupM Motion Entertainment, predicts that more “fringe hits” will emerge from alternative platforms, particularly social media.

Another area experiencing growth is international TV formats, much like the trend seen in the music industry. International shows are often cheaper to produce and were not affected by the WGA strike, contributing to an increase in non English SVOD releases from 24% in 2019 to 33% in 2023. In fact, according to Luminate data, “foreign language” became the most common category for original streaming content in 2023, surpassing all other subgenres for the first time.

And then there is the power of Sports. While the scripted TV landscape has cooled, sports broadcast has arguably become and even more crucial asset. Live sports remain one of the few entertainment categories that can consistently draw massive real-time audiences.

Streaming platforms and legacy media companies are increasingly vying for sports broadcasting rights as a way to secure viewership and subscription loyalty. Amazon, for example, has made significant investments into Thursday Night Football, the English Premier League and the UEFA Champions League, while Disney continues to rely heavily on ESPN to maintain its foothold in live sports.